Hold (Sportsbook)

Hold is what the book actually kept: 5–10% typically, oscillating with results (favorites winning compresses it; upsets expand it) around the structural margin the overround sets.

Structural vs realized

Earnings calls distinguish luck from pricing: “hold-adjusted” figures normalize short-term results variance. Product mix drives structural hold upward — parlays and same-game combos hold multiples of straight bets, explaining the industry’s parlay obsession. Affiliate revshare on sports rides these swings; a bad results month depresses commissions program-wide, which negative-carryover terms then amplify. Diversification across brands is the affiliate hedge.