Crypto swing trading lives in the sweet spot between frantic day trading and passive HODLing. You don’t need twenty screens or a monk’s patience—you need a rules-based plan to capture multi-day to multi-week “swings” born from crypto’s famously wild volatility. I’ll walk you through the approach I use: how to read regimes, pick coins, define entries and exits, size positions, control risk, and avoid the landmines that wipe out otherwise solid traders.
What swing trading is (and isn’t)
Swing trading aims to capture a chunk of a directional move—up or down—over several days to several weeks. It is not scalping. It is not blind HODLing. You’re aligning with the current path of least resistance, then stepping aside when the odds deteriorate.
Swing vs day trading vs HODL
| Dimension | Swing Trading | Day Trading | HODLing/Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holding period | Days–weeks | Minutes–hours | Months–years |
| Key edge | Regime/trend alignment + disciplined exits | Microstructure, speed, execution | Thesis, network growth, adoption |
| Time demand | Moderate | High | Low |
| Risk drivers | Gaps, liquidation cascades, funding/basis shifts | Fees, slippage, latency | Drawdowns, narrative risk |
| Tooling priority | Trend, volatility, funding/OI, liquidity | Order flow, DOM, spreads | On-chain, tokenomics, cycles |
If you have a job, sleep, or both, swing trading is usually the sanest active path.
Regime first: read the tape before you trade it
Swing trading starts with regime detection. Your tactics change depending on whether the market is trending, ranging, or unwinding.
A quick regime checklist I run daily
- Trend: Is price above/below the 50/200 EMAs on the timeframe I’m trading? Higher highs/lows or lower highs/lows?
- Volatility: ATR as % of price rising or falling? Bollinger Band width expanding or contracting?
- Breadth: Are multiple majors (BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB) confirming direction, or is it one-ticker heroics?
- Derivatives:
- Open Interest (OI): Rising with price (healthy) or rising against price (fuel for squeeze)?
- Funding (perps): Persistently positive (longs paying) or negative (shorts paying)? Extremes warn of reversals.
- Liquidation heatmaps: Are there obvious clusters above/below?
- Liquidity: Are daily dollar volumes robust (7-day average) or thin? Thin books turn small news into big moves.
Rule of thumb:
- Trend + expanding volatility → trend/pullback strategies.
- Range + contracting volatility → breakout strategies (squeeze), or mean-revert fades within the range.
- Sharp unwinds + spiking volatility → survival mode, smaller size, wider stops, trade only A-setups (or hedge/stand down).
The indicator toolbox that actually helps
You don’t need 20 indicators. You need a coherent set that answers: trend? momentum? risk? timing?
| Job | Tool | How I use it |
|---|---|---|
| Trend | 20/50/200 EMA | Market above rising 20/50 for longs; below falling 20/50 for shorts. 200 EMA frames bigger regime. |
| Momentum | RSI(14) or RSI(7) | In trends: buy pullbacks to RSI 40–50 in uptrends; sell bounces to RSI 50–60 in downtrends. Avoid chasing >70 unless it’s a breakout day. |
| Volatility | ATR(14), Bollinger Bands(20,2) | Stops and position sizing from ATR; BB squeeze signals potential expansion. |
| Structure | Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) | Anchor to major breakout/earnest reversal day; pullbacks into rising AVWAP are high-quality adds. |
| Confirmation | Volume, OBV, or CVD | Breakouts need volume. Divergences warn of failure. |
| Derivatives | Funding, OI, CVD | Overheated funding + rising OI into resistance = caution; cooling funding on pullback in uptrend often = opportunity. |
Setups that consistently pay (with rules)
You’ll trade better with two or three core setups you master. Here are four that form a complete swing playbook.
1) Trend pullback to dynamic support (bread-and-butter)
- Context: Uptrend (price above rising 20/50 EMA, higher highs/lows)
- Entry: Pullback into 20 EMA or anchored VWAP from the last breakout day, with RSI holding ~40–50; bullish reversal candle + volume uptick
- Invalidation: Close below swing low or 2×ATR below entry (choose one and stick to it)
- Targets: Prior high, then measured move (1–1.5× recent swing range)
- Notes: Avoid if funding wildly positive and OI ballooned into the pullback—ripe for deeper flush.
2) Volatility contraction breakout (the “squeeze”)
- Context: Multi-day consolidation; Bollinger Band width at 3-month lows
- Entry: Break and close above range highs with volume > 1.5× 20-day average (don’t front-run chop)
- Invalidation: Back inside the range (failed breakout = exit)
- Targets: Range height projected from breakout; trail with rising 20 EMA
- Notes: Best when broader regime is trending in the breakout direction.
3) Range fade (mean-reversion)
- Context: Clear horizontal range; flat 50/200 EMAs; news vacuum
- Entry: Fade toward range extremes with confluence (prior highs/lows, daily pivot), RSI divergence
- Invalidation: Outside the range + close (don’t “hope” ranges hold)
- Targets: Mid-range, opposite band
- Notes: Stand down if a catalyst looms or if OI/funding suggests a squeeze is brewing.
4) Breakdown rally (short the bounce)
- Context: Downtrend (lower lows/highs; below falling 20/50)
- Entry: Rally into falling 20/50 EMA with RSI 50–60 ceiling; bearish reversal + declining volume
- Invalidation: Close above swing high
- Targets: Retest lows, extension by recent swing range
- Notes: Watch funding turning negative (crowded shorts) → expect violent squeezes; size down.
From idea to execution: a simple, repeatable process
- Screen: Filter for coins with top-quartile dollar volume, clean charts, and alignment with BTC/ETH regime.
- Context: Identify trend, volatility state, nearby catalysts (upgrades, unlocks, listings).
- Plan: Write the setup in one sentence (“SOL trend pullback to AVWAP with RSI 45; stop = swing low; target = prior high”).
- Size: Calculate position from risk first (see below).
- Place: Use limit/stop-limit to control slippage; avoid thin pairs.
- Manage: Scale partial at 1R, trail the rest; never widen stops.
- Journal: Capture entry, exit, R multiple, notes, and emotions. Expectancy lives here.
Position sizing that preserves your account
Your edge is meaningless if your sizing is reckless. I cap per-trade risk at 0.25–1.0% of equity depending on regime.
Position size formulaPosition size = (Account Equity × Risk%) ÷ (Stop Distance in price)
Example: Account $20,000; risk 0.5%; entry 100; stop 94; risk per unit = 6 →
Position = (20,000 × 0.005) / 6 = $16.67 per $, i.e., 2.78 units (round down to 2–2.5 to account for slippage/fees).
A practical risk matrix
| Regime | Max risk / trade | Max total risk (sum of open) | Max correlated positions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calm uptrend | 0.75–1.0% | 4–5% | 3 in same sector (e.g., L1s) |
| Choppy/range | 0.5% | 3% | 2 |
| High vol selloff | 0.25–0.5% | 1–2% | 1 (or stand down) |
Stops: I prefer structure stops (below swing low/high) or ATR-based (e.g., 1.5–2.0× ATR). Don’t mix them mid-trade. Don’t widen. Ever.
Risk management beyond stops
- Portfolio heat: Sum of all open risks ≤ your max total risk. If you’re at 5% and want a new trade, close or reduce something first.
- Correlation drag: BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB often move together in stress. Diversify across thesis (L1s, DeFi, infrastructure) and timeframes.
- Derivatives risk: Funding and OI can turn winners into liquidations. If funding runs hot for days, I either hedge (small contrary position) or reduce size.
- Venue risk: Exchange blow-ups happen. Keep custody diversified; don’t leave excess idle on any one platform.
- Event risk: Airdrops, unlocks, major listings/upgrades—respect the calendar. I flatten or cut size into binary events unless the setup compensates.
Choosing coins that swing cleanly
Trade what pays you: liquidity + volatility + structure.
| Tier | Examples | Why they work for swing |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 liquidity | BTC, ETH | Deep books, tight spreads, cleaner trends, options/derivs data helpful |
| High-beta majors | SOL, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE | Higher volatility, still liquid; good for pullbacks and squeezes |
| Thematic leaders | Top DeFi/L2/infrastructure names by volume | Catalyst-driven moves; respect unlocks and roadmap events |
| Avoid (for swings) | Illiquid microcaps, new listings with thin books | Slippage, manipulation, gap risk, unreliable TA |
Rule: If your stop requires >2% of account risk due to slippage/spread, it’s not a swing trade—it’s a gamble.
Spotting opportunities (technical + “fundamental” for crypto)
- Technical tells:
- Fresh higher low + reclaim of 20 EMA with volume.
- Squeeze (BB width at multi-month lows) inside a broader uptrend.
- AVWAP pulls to breakout day—institutions anchor there.
- Crypto-specific “fundamentals”:
- Network health: active addresses, TVL trends (for DeFi), dev velocity.
- Token mechanics: emissions/vesting; low net new supply supports trends.
- Flows: exchange inflows/outflows; stablecoin supply growth = risk appetite.
- Narratives: L2 scaling, RWAs, restaking, AI—ride them while the music plays, but exit when the data diverges.
Three bread-and-butter strategies in detail
Trend-following with moving averages
- Signal: 20 EMA crosses above 50 EMA; price re-tests the 20/50 “zone” and holds; RSI 40–80 bull regime.
- Entry: On the first higher low + bullish candle; or break of pivot after the test.
- Exit: Close below the 50 EMA or failure at a measured move; trailing stop using last swing low or 2×ATR.
- Edge: You miss bottoms but catch the meat of the move.
Breakout from volatility contraction
- Signal: Multi-week base; BB squeeze; declining volume in base → expansion day with expanding volume.
- Entry: Close above base with 1.5–2.0× volume; add on first tight pullback that holds AVWAP from breakout.
- Exit: Back inside base (no questions); partials at 1R and at base height target.
- Edge: Small initial risk; outsized runs when trend resumes.
Mean-reversion within ranges
- Signal: Flat MAs; repeated rejections at parallel highs/lows; RSI divergences at boundaries.
- Entry: Fade at extremes with clear invalidation; scale < full size; tighter profit targets.
- Exit: Mid-range or opposite band; abandon on catalyst or regime shift.
- Edge: Gets paid while the crowd waits for breakouts that never come.
A complete trade walk-through (numbers and rules)
- Context: SOL daily uptrend, price above rising 20/50; BB squeezed then expanded on breakout 3 days ago. Funding cooled from hot to neutral; OI stable.
- Plan: Buy first pullback to AVWAP anchored to breakout day, confluence with 20 EMA.
- Account: $25,000; risk per trade 0.5% ($125).
- Entry: 150.00; Stop: 141.00 (below swing low; ≈ 1.8×ATR).
- Risk per unit: $9 → Position size = $125 / $9 = 13.8 → 13 SOL.
- Management:
- Take partial (40%) at +1R (159).
- Trail stop to breakeven on remainder once +1R hit.
- Second target = prior high (168); third = measured move (base height 18 → 150+18=168 already; stretch 180).
- Outcome discipline: If price closes below 141, exit everything—no “what ifs.”
Even a 45–50% win rate with 1:2 average risk:reward produces positive expectancy. That’s the entire game.
Expectancy and journal metrics (what I actually track)
- Expectancy:
E = (Win% × Avg Win) – (Loss% × Avg Loss)
Target E > 0.2R over a 50-trade sample for a setup. - Core metrics: Win rate, average R, profit factor, max drawdown, time in trade, MFE/MAE (max favorable/adverse excursion), slippage/fees %.
- Behavioral notes: Why I entered, what I felt, what I should repeat/avoid. This is where edge compounds.
Common mistakes that kill swing traders
- Chasing breakouts without volume or regime alignment.
- Tight stops inside noisy crypto ranges → death by a thousand cuts.
- Adding to losers in downtrends (“it’s a bargain now”).
- Ignoring funding/OI—getting steamrolled by squeezes.
- Over-concentration in highly correlated assets.
- Venue risk negligence—parking too much capital on one exchange.
- No written plan—winging it turns your account into tuition.
Tools that make this 10× easier
- Charting/alerts: TradingView (AVWAP, multi-timeframe EMAs, custom alerts).
- Derivatives data: Funding, OI, liquidations, CVD from reputable analytics dashboards.
- Screeners: Daily dollar volume, ATR%, BB width rank, distance from 20/50 EMA.
- Automation (optional): Simple bots to place OCO (one-cancels-other) orders and trail stops; avoid full black-box systems until you can beat random with discretionary rules.
- Risk calculators: Position size from stop distance + risk budget—use every time.
Swing trading vs day trading: which fits you?
If you can only check markets twice a day, like to think in setups not ticks, and prefer measured decisions to rapid fire, swing trading will feel natural. If you need constant stimulation and enjoy microstructure puzzles, day trading may fit—but be ready for higher fees, higher screen time, and a steeper psychological tax.
Final guardrails I refuse to break
- Never risk >1% on a single idea; never >5% total open risk.
- Never widen a stop. Ever.
- Never “double down” on a loser in a downtrend.
- Always size from the stop, not the dream.
- Always write the plan before the order.
- If I wouldn’t open it today, I shouldn’t still be in it.
Crypto’s volatility is a gift if you impose structure on it. Build a small set of high-probability setups, size from risk, track your numbers, and let the market do the heavy lifting. The goal isn’t to catch every move. It’s to capture enough of the right ones while surviving the rest.
