Rev‑share vs CPA profit calculator. This tool lets affiliates input expected player value, conversion rates and commission structures to decide which payout model is more profitable.
Choosing between revenue share and CPA isn’t a vibes decision; it’s math. The right model depends on your FTD rate, player LTV/NGR, voids/chargebacks, and media costs. Use the calculator above to model casino and sportsbook traffic, then pressure-test your assumptions before signing a deal.
| Lever | Why it matters | What to check |
|---|---|---|
| FTD rate | Drives volume into either model | Landing page, GEO intent, KYC friction |
| LTV / NGR | The core of rev-share value | Bonus policy, VIP mgmt, retention cycles |
| Voids / Adjustments | Silent killers for both models | Fraud rules, chargebacks, self-exclusion |
| Negative carryover | Can zero-out rev-share months | NCO policy, high-roller exposure |
| CPA quals | Shifts risk back to you | Min deposit, wagering, multi-step KYC |
| Commission tiers | Step-function gains on RS | Monthly FTD or revenue thresholds |
| Traffic cost (CPC) | Moves ROI + cash flow | Media mix, seasonality, ad fatigue |
| GEO mix | LTV varies wildly by market | Payment options, regulation, RG posture |
| Cross-sell | Sports ↔ casino lift LTV | Product depth, calendar, promo sync |
Neither universally. If LTV is high and void/NCO is light, rev-share compounds. If cash flow and risk control matter, CPA can outperform.
Use monthly NGR × months with a decay factor (e.g., 0.85–0.95). Sanity-check with historic cohorts by GEO and product.
Target CPA ≤ your break-even CPA (the tool shows it), then layer a rev-share that meaningfully participates in upside.
Model them explicitly. A 5–10% void can erase apparent edge. Always get the definition of “qualified” in writing.
Losses that carry into next month and offset future rev-share. Push for no NCO, monthly reset, or VIP ring-fence.
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