Rev‑share vs CPA profit calculator. This tool lets affiliates input expected player value, conversion rates and commission structures to decide which payout model is more profitable.
Rev-Share vs CPA: Which Pays You More for iGaming Traffic?
Choosing between revenue share and CPA isn’t a vibes decision; it’s math. The right model depends on your FTD rate, player LTV/NGR, voids/chargebacks, and media costs. Use the calculator above to model casino and sportsbook traffic, then pressure-test your assumptions before signing a deal.
How the calculator works (in plain English)
- Inputs you control: Clicks, FTD rate, cost per click, LTV / NGR per FTD (lifetime or monthly with decay), CPA, rev-share %, and void/adjustment rates.
- Outputs you care about: Estimated FTDs, Revenue, Net Profit, Revenue per Click (RPC), ROI, and break-even points (the CPA that equals your rev-share value, and the rev-share % that equals your CPA).
Quick example (typical casino numbers)
- Traffic: 10,000 clicks, FTD rate 1.5% → 150 FTDs
- CPA: €200 with 5% void → €190/FTD → €28,500 revenue
- Rev-share: 30% of €800 LTV with 8% adjustment → €220.8/FTD → €33,120 revenue
Result: Rev-share beats CPA by €4,620 on revenue (profit delta identical if traffic cost is the same). If your CPC > 0, check ROI—rev-share typically shines as retention improves.
When CPA wins
- Low retention or bonus tourists (short LTV).
- Aggressive paid acquisition where cash-flow speed matters.
- You’re testing a new GEO or partner and want risk off.
- Operator enforces negative carryover or heavy deductions on rev-share.
When Rev-Share wins
- Sticky verticals and strong CRM (higher LTV/NGR).
- High-intent organic rankings: brand + bonus queries that convert and retain.
- Seasonality and cross-sell (casino ↔ sportsbook) increase lifetime value.
- You can reach commission tiers or add sub-aff revenue on top.
Hybrid deals (CPA + Rev-Share)
- Use the tool to set your break-even CPA given your rev-share assumptions.
- If an operator offers CPA lower than your break-even, plus even a modest rev-share, you’ve bought downside protection and kept upside.
- Watch the small print: qualification thresholds, time-bound RS, or caps can erase expected value.
Levers that swing results
Lever | Why it matters | What to check |
---|---|---|
FTD rate | Drives volume into either model | Landing page, GEO intent, KYC friction |
LTV / NGR | The core of rev-share value | Bonus policy, VIP mgmt, retention cycles |
Voids / Adjustments | Silent killers for both models | Fraud rules, chargebacks, self-exclusion |
Negative carryover | Can zero-out rev-share months | NCO policy, high-roller exposure |
CPA quals | Shifts risk back to you | Min deposit, wagering, multi-step KYC |
Commission tiers | Step-function gains on RS | Monthly FTD or revenue thresholds |
Traffic cost (CPC) | Moves ROI + cash flow | Media mix, seasonality, ad fatigue |
GEO mix | LTV varies wildly by market | Payment options, regulation, RG posture |
Cross-sell | Sports ↔ casino lift LTV | Product depth, calendar, promo sync |
Negotiation checklist (copy-paste)
- Define LTV: GGR vs NGR, what deductions apply (bonuses, fees, tax)?
- Void rules: fraud, chargebacks, self-exclusion, cool-offs, dormant.
- Negative carryover: yes/no; if yes, ask for monthly reset or VIP ring-fence.
- CPA qualification: minimum deposit, wagering, time windows, multi-product.
- Tiering: thresholds, auto-downgrade rules, grace periods.
- Tracking: postbacks, sub-IDs, cohort reporting, app vs web attribution.
- Payout ops: currency, frequency, fees, hold periods, invoice requirements.
- Compliance: ad claims, RG, KYC, GEO restrictions, bonus T&Cs alignment.
FAQs
Is CPA or rev-share better for casino affiliates?
Neither universally. If LTV is high and void/NCO is light, rev-share compounds. If cash flow and risk control matter, CPA can outperform.
How do I estimate player LTV (NGR) realistically?
Use monthly NGR × months with a decay factor (e.g., 0.85–0.95). Sanity-check with historic cohorts by GEO and product.
What about hybrid deals?
Target CPA ≤ your break-even CPA (the tool shows it), then layer a rev-share that meaningfully participates in upside.
How do voids and chargebacks affect earnings?
Model them explicitly. A 5–10% void can erase apparent edge. Always get the definition of “qualified” in writing.
What is negative carryover?
Losses that carry into next month and offset future rev-share. Push for no NCO, monthly reset, or VIP ring-fence.